Experts are warning airlines to take extra care when reactivating planes left in storage during the pandemic.
Pilot rustiness, maintenance errors and even insect nests could be potential dangers for aircraft re-entering service.
Travel restrictions have caused a huge decline in flying, with many planes put in extended storage.
As a result, there has been a spike in the number of reported problems as planes return to service.
“Every aircraft is going to have a specific set of instructions for maintenance, but it has never been done on this scale before,” said Greg Waldron, Asia managing editor of aviation magazine FlightGlobal.
Along with regulators, insurers have also expressed concern. “We’ve got people returning to work who are quite rusty, which is a big issue,” said Gary Moran, head of Asia aviation at insurance broker Aon.
Not ‘like riding a bike’
One of the most worrying problems is an increase in the number of poorly-handled landing approaches.
The number of so-called “unstabilised approaches” has sharply increased this year, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA).
They can result in hard landings, runway overshoots or even crashes.
In May, a Pakistan International Airlines jet crashed after an unstabilised approach, killing 97 people, while 18 died in an Air India Express crash on landing in August, also after an unstabilised approach.
Experts say that pilots might need to be more cautious than usual as they re-enter service.
“Flying an aircraft can be quite technical. If you haven’t been doing it for a while, it’s certainly not second nature like riding a bike,” Mr Waldron added.
However, he said airlines are aware of the issue and in many cases have booked extra time for their pilots in flight simulators.
Maintenance difficulties
Aircraft in storage typically undergo a routine maintenance schedule to ensure they’re ready to return to service when business improves.
Asia Pacific Airline Storage, which has a facility at Alice Springs that stores planes for Cathay Pacific and Singapore airlines, employs more than 70 maintenance crew.
Manufacturers also give very detailed instructions about how to store their aircraft. But there have still been some reported problems.
For example, the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) said there has been a surge in the number of reports of unreliable airspeed and altitude readings during the first flight after a plane leaves storage.
In some cases, take-offs have had to be abandoned or the aircraft has had to return to base.
Insect nests
In many previous cases problems with airspeed readings have been due to insects or larvae in the aircraft’s pitot tubes, which are key components used to measure air speed.
These issues are well known within the aviation industry, and Mr Waldron said he thinks airline travel will remain safe.
But he added that there will be some issues, because planes have been stored for longer than before, and in some cases the planes in storage are new models, which means the potential issues are not as well documented.
Covid-19 has created a lot of unknowns in our industry. Amongst the noise of statistics and global media, it is important to remain vigilant to the risks specific to aviation that the virus has created. Most of us will have heard by now that aviation itself is not inherently dangerous, but terribly unforgiving of complacency. Never has this been more important than when returning 75% of the world’s fleet from storage to the skies.
The dramatic effect that Covid-19 has had on the aviation industry has grounded an unprecedented number of aircraft. They have been placed into storage whilst the world waits to recover. The pandemic emerged without warning, and some operators were likely not prepared for what was coming.
Now travel bans are lifting, airports are reopening, and airlines are scrambling to return aircraft to the skies.
EASA recently released a disturbing Safety Information Bulletin. There has been an alarming trend in the number of aircraft experiencing unreliable speed and altitude indications during first flights after storage, caused by contaminated air data systems.
The result has been multiple rejected take offs and airborne returns. Most of the events have been caused by nesting insects in the pitot static system – even after covers were installed.
Modern flight instruments provide large amounts of information to crew with great precision, while automation makes flying transport category aircraft almost routine. Flight envelope protections and aural/tactile warnings keep us safe even in most abnormal scenarios.
At the heart of all of this is the air data computer (ADC) – a small piece of hardware that needs accurate information from outside of the aircraft to work correctly. They are the “Achille’s heel” of modern electronic flight information systems. In a nutshell, these small computers obtain and process information from the aircraft’s pitot static system, and supply critical systems with information such as airspeed, altitude and temperature.
Like all computers, they don’t think for themselves. They are only as accurate as the information they receive. So, when the pitot static system is contaminated, they can only respond to what they sense. They can’t look out the window.
History has shown that unreliable airspeed events are dangerous:
February 6, 1996. Birgenair Flight 301, a Boeing 757, departed Puerto Plata in the Dominican Republic, on a routine flight. During the climb out, the Captain’s airspeed indicator began to increase dramatically. The autopilot reacted as designed, and increased pitch to reduce airspeed, while the auto-throttles reduced power.
In the meantime, the co-pilot’s ASI indicated a dangerously slow airspeed which was decreasing. Almost simultaneously, an overspeed warning was generated. The autopilot reached the limits of its programming and disengaged. The stick-shaker activated, warning the confused crew that the aircraft was flying critically close to a stall.
The Captain responded by applying full thrust. The excessively high angle of attack resulted in insufficient airflow to match demand and the left-hand engine flamed out. The right-hand engine developed full power and the aircraft entered a spin. Moments later the aircraft became inverted, before impacting the Atlantic Ocean. The three pilots had 43,000 hours of experience between them.
A Mud Dauber Wasp entering the pitot tube of a 737.
The cause of the accident was a blockage of a single pitot tube. The likely culprit was the black and yellow mud dauber – a small wasp known to nest in artificial cylindrical structures. The aircraft hadn’t flown in 20 days.
The threat of similar events is greatly increased by improper storage techniques and rushing to return to service.
Getting aircraft flying again is a complex process and presents major risks. It is up to operators to ensure adequate procedures are in place to accomplish it safely. They must anticipate the difficulties and rapid adaptation to internal procedures that this entails.
Don’t know where to start? We don’t blame you. Thankfully, EASA has published guidance which can help mitigate some of these risks. Here is a brief rundown of their recommendations:
Assemble your A-team. Everyone needs to be onboard. Flight operations, CAMOs, maintenance organisations, type certificate holders and aviation authorities are your first port of call. Find out what needs to be done for each individual tail number and communicate with human resources for manpower, supply chain for the tools, and flight ops for hangar spacing and crewing. Think about who you need to talk too and get started early.
Similar aircraft stored in similar conditions will invariably behave in the same way. Safe return to service begins with good data. It is vital that defects are reported and linked. If a nest is found in an aircraft’s pitot tube, the odds are there will be many more. The data needs to be analysed, and operating procedures (such as additional checks) need to be changed to reflect it.
Storage Procedures. It is possible that aircraft were not fully stored in accordance with manufacturer procedures. Implement a rock-solid audit programme to make sure things are being done properly. EASA recommend extra inspections, ground runs and flight testing of at least ten percent of aircraft before release to service.
Storage Environment The storage environment presents significant hazards to airworthiness. Insects, sand, salt, dust and humidity can all damage aircraft. There may not have been enough protective covers to go around. Was there biocide in the fuel? Is it even useable? It is advised that extra checks be carried out on aircraft parts that are susceptible to contamination, particularly pitot/static systems. Get additional support to add those inspections.
Jet Fuel contaminated with bacterial growth.
Remote Storage This presents unique challenges. Engineering services may be limited, and staff may become overwhelmed with the large number of aircraft waiting to become airworthy. You may need to send additional manpower or require ferry permits to move aircraft around. Is enough equipment on hand to complete extra checks?
A Boeing 777 in deep storage in the Australian outback.
Time. Nothing happens in a day. Commercial time pressure is a major risk factor. Getting an airplane airworthy can cause delays and rushing has a profound effect on safety. Plan ahead and make sure your deadlines are realistic. Communicate them with your staff to ensure confidence.
Inappropriate decision making. This is hazardous, particularly with unfamiliar procedures. Storage on this scale has never happened before and answers may not be in existing manuals. Key personal may not be immediately available to help. Remind staff not to act alone and create a team responsible for making decisions in this challenging scenario
Limited staff experience. Remember that this has never happened before and you may need the help of staff who are new to your organisation. Make sure they are aware of internal procedures that they need to know beforehand. It is a good idea to properly supervise them and assess their work.
Big teams: It takes a lot of people to get aircraft back in the air.
The elephant in the room. Covid-19. The virus has changed the way we can work. Staff can’t move around as freely and there may be restrictions on how many people can work together. You may need to plan ahead and establish isolated teams who work remotely if practical.
Overdue maintenance. Airworthiness directives, MELs, routine maintenance, inspections, ground runs, test flights. There is a lot to do. Start with comprehensive airworthiness reviews of each individual tail number.
They will be under the same pressure that you are. Communicate with them ahead of time and check their availability.
Pilot training. It is likely they are uncurrent, and operating aircraft which have just come out of long-term storage. Simulator training should berelevant to the challenges they will face in the current operating environment. Consider critical systems vulnerable to damage in storage and the affect that these might have on the first flight. In other words, expect the unexpected and provide them with the ability to react quickly and with confidence.
Flyers hiding infection show risk of reopening Hong Kong borders
People infected with coronavirus were allowed to board aircraft and travel to Hong Kong in recent days, highlighting the challenge of controlling the pandemic while governments seek the safest ways to reopen borders.
Hong Kong’s health authorities said one infected passenger arrived Sunday from Manila on a Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd flight, and another was on a Cathay Dragon flight from Kuala Lumpur. Both were diagnosed with COVID-19 before they traveled. It also said 45 passengers on Emirates flights from Dubai over the weekend either were confirmed or probable cases. The airline only restarted flights to Hong Kong this month.
For measures to be put in place to ensure infected passengers don’t fly, it has to be done by the authorities and it’s not something an airline like us can do on our own.
Korean Air Lines
The infections underscore the risk of peeling back restrictions when the global pace of infections keeps accelerating. Airlines worldwide, largely propped up by government bailouts, have been lobbying to get their planes back in the air as they face more than US$84 billion in losses this year.
The International Air Transport Association, which represents almost 300 airlines, recommends steps such as temperature checks at the airport and wearing face masks to protect passengers and crew from infection.
But the Hong Kong cases show that infected passengers can bypass voluntary requirements, and there’s little airlines can do.
“Taking temperatures and having passengers wear masks on flights are steps we can do to ensure the virus doesn’t spread,” Korean Air Lines Co said in a statement. “For measures to be put in place to ensure infected passengers don’t fly, it has to be done by the authorities and it’s not something an airline like us can do on our own.”
IATA last week outlined recommendations for COVID-19 testing, saying it ideally would be done before arriving at the airport and within 24 hours of travel. If testing is required during the travel process, it should be done at departure, and governments would need to mutually recognize test results, IATA said.
In an online conference hosted by the Hong Kong Tourism Board on Wednesday, IATA Director General Alexandre de Juniac reiterated that there needs to be much more collaboration between governments, and that it doesn’t work for countries to impose and lift border restrictions unilaterally.
Hong Kong’s Centre for Health Protection said the 30 new cases on Monday and 16 on Tuesday all had a travel history during the incubation period. The passenger flying on Cathay Flight 906 from Manila, a 58-year-old man, tested positive in the Philippines on Saturday, the day before he arrived.
Cathay, which requires passengers to fill out health declaration forms before they travel, said it learned about the passenger from health authorities after the plane landed. The airline is following “prescribed procedures in conducting disinfection of aircraft and informing the operating crew and employees,” as well as helping to trace those who were in close contact with the man.
A spokesman for the Philippine Immigration Bureau said it wasn’t the agency’s job to check health clearances.
“We only check the passport and boarding” pass, spokesman Melvin Mabulac said.
The passenger on Cathay Dragon Flight 734 was a 39-year-old woman returning from India via Malaysia, Hong Kong’s health department said Tuesday. After landing, she declared she’d tested positive and had been treated for the virus in India last month.
The Centre for Health Protection, which advises against all non-essential travel outside Hong Kong, said it is in contact with authorities in the Philippines and India to obtain more information about the cases.
The Hong Kong arrivals aren’t likely to be isolated cases. While some countries, including Australia, have said their borders are likely to be effectively closed for the rest of the year, others — including members of the European Union — are working on allowing more international flights.
Biogen Inc said in March it fired a female worker who returned to China from Massachusetts without disclosing her infection. Local media said the 37-year-old took a large dose of anti-fever medication before she boarded to hide her illness.
JetBlue Airways Corp. banned a passenger who flew from New York to Florida and notified the crew after landing that he had tested positive for coronavirus, CNN said in March.
‘No basis in fact’: Australian Tourism Minister slams China’s travel warning
Trade and Tourism Minister Simon Birmingham has slammed the Chinese government for instructing citizens not to visit Australia due to increasing racism as “having no basis in fact”.
China’s Ministry of Culture and Tourism on Saturday morning advised the public not to travel to Australia due to “an alarming increase” in racial discrimination and violence towards Chinese people in relation to the coronavirus pandemic.
Minister for Trade, Tourism and Investment Simon Birmingham.CREDIT:ALEX ELLINGHAUSEN
Mr Birmingham has rejected these comments outright, saying Australia was “the most successful multicultural and migrant society in the world”.
“The Chinese Australian community is a significant and valued contributor to that success story,” he said. China is the biggest single source of international tourists to Australia.
“Millions of tourists from all corners of the world demonstrate their confidence in Australia as a safe, welcoming and amazing destination by visiting each year, often returning multiple times.
“We reject China’s assertions in this statement, which have no basis in fact. Our rejection of these claims, which have been falsely made by Chinese officials previously, is well known to them,” he said.
The Chinese government’s advice to citizens not to travel to Australia was issued shortly after Prime Minister Scott Morrison revealed a planned overhaul of foreign investment rules with the Foreign Investment Review Board to be given the power to approve all investments in sensitive industries regardless of size. The FIRB currently assesses foreign investment activity worth above $275 million.
Mr Morrison intends to have the system up and running by 2021 to mitigate against “increasing risks to the national interest” but has said he did not want to inflame tensions with China.
University of Technology Sydney director of the Australia-China Relations Institute Professor James Laurenceson said the comments were “pretty standard Beijing practice” and had the hallmarks of retaliation.
“They are a response to the political disagreement, cloaked in plausible deniability as there has been an uptick in racism in Australia,” Professor Laurenceson said.
“There is a question mark over whether Beijing is shooting a warning shot or trying [to inflict] economic harm as there are no tourists here at the moment,” he said, adding it was most likely a way for the Chinese government to show displeasure.
Mr Birmingham said Australia had “world leading success” in suppressing the spread of COVID-19, which had originated in Wuhan in China, and was looking forward to having visitors back when the health advice allowed the lifting of border restrictions.
“Australia’s multicultural success is based on our respect for all Australians and visitors regardless of their race, religion, ethnicity or sexuality. It is our liberty as a free democratic society that enables us to embrace so many peoples while achieving a unity and inclusion that stands out in the global crowd,” he said.
He said closing the borders with China was “unfortunate” but was a move to protect Australia from the spread of the pandemic from Wuhan.
“This decision was criticised by the Chinese Government at the time, but it proved to be a critical decision in keeping Australians safe from the devastation faced by much of the rest of the world,” he said.
“Australians returning from China did an amazing job through self isolation to protect Australia at that critical time, as many more have since.”
Australian Tourism Industry Council chief executive Simon Westaway declined to comment directly on the Chinese government’s instructions to citizens but said the organisation “welcome a future return of international visitors” as the local industry recovers.
Perth USAsia Centre research director Jeffrey Wilson described the Chinese government’s directions as “ludicrous and inflammatory” but not unexpected.
Cheng Jingye, the Chinese ambassador to Australia, expressed frustration in April about the federal government’s push for an inquiry into the outbreak of COVID-19, and warned there could be a travel ban.
“The ambassador [talked about this] six weeks ago and now it has come true,” Dr Wilson said.
“First it was barley, then beef, now tourism and students… it’s part of long-running trade sanctions,” he said.
“The longest shadow of this will be over the education market… it sends a message in terms of stoking fear and concern about what conditions are like in Australia.”
Coronavirus: Gas analysis conference at Grand Hyatt Singapore linked to infections
A 27-year-old Singaporean man who was at the business event at the Grand Hyatt Singapore is among those confirmed to have contracted the coronavirus.ST
The conference, held over three days from Jan 20, was organised by British firm Servomex, Chinese evening daily Lianhe Wanbao reported.
Singapore’s Ministry of Health had previously said that 109 company employees – 94 from overseas and 15 local – attended the conference.
A 27-year-old Singaporean man who was at the meeting is among those confirmed to have contracted the coronavirus, which originated from the central Chinese city of Wuhan. One foreign employee at the meeting was from Wuhan.
The company did not reply to queries from The Straits Times.
Two South Koreans, aged 36 and 38, and a 41-year-old Malaysian who were at the meeting also tested positive after returning home, sparking an investigation by the World Health Organisation.
On Friday (Feb 7), a middle-aged British man who attended the meeting was also confirmed to have the virus. He is the first British national to contract the virus.
He was taken to St Thomas’s Hospital in London and is currently being treated at a specialist infectious diseases unit.
A member of a lion dance troupe that had performed at the Servomex Sales Conference at the Grand Hyatt on Jan 20 said eight other troupe members performed onstage during the event.
The group learnt through news reports that it was the same business event where several attendees were later found to have contracted the coronavirus.
“We were a bit shocked. But the performance was only five to 10 minutes long and they left straight after,” said the troupe member, who did not take part in the performance.
He added that his colleagues neither had direct contact with the conference members nor ate any food there. None of those in the lion dance troupe has shown any symptoms of the virus or been asked to take a leave of absence, he said, adding that members are taking precautions, such as daily temperature monitoring.
Grand Hyatt Singapore’s general manager, Mr Willi Martin, said on Thursday that details about the three infections in the hotel were still sketchy.
“The Singapore Ministry of Health is still investigating the cases with the relevant authorities and has not advised details on how, where or when these individuals were infected with the virus,” he said.
The hotel has since engaged a government-appointed external agency to conduct a thorough sanitisation of potentially impacted rooms, said Mr Martin. Deep-cleaning measures have also been introduced in public areas, restaurants, meeting spaces, guestrooms and the hotel’s spa and fitness centre.
Also referred to as Wuhan Coronavirus, Wuhan Virus, Wuhan Pneumonia.
A new respiratory virus first detected in the Chinese city of Wuhan has infected hundreds of Chinese citizens and claimed a number of lives.
The fast-spreading infection, which causes pneumonia-like symptoms, has prompted Chinese authorities to quarantine several major cities and cancel some Lunar New Year events.
Here are six maps and graphics that will help you understand what is going on.
1. Cases have been mainly in China
Hundreds of patients have been infected with the virus across China, with central Hubei province the worst-affected.
The World Health Organisation (WHO) is warning the number of cases is likely to rise further, and Chinese authorities have introduced a number of measures to try to halt the virus’s spread.
The Chinese government has also closed a number of temples, the Forbidden City and part of the Great Wall.
The growing list of restrictions comes at the beginning of a week-long holiday celebrating Lunar New Year – one of the most important dates in the Chinese calendar – when millions of people travel home.
The WHO has not yet classed the virus as an “international emergency”, partly because of the low number of overseas cases, but said it “may yet become one”.
“Make no mistake, this is, though, an emergency in China,” said WHO director-general Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus.
Image copyrightGETTY IMAGES
2. Hubei province has been particularly badly affected
More than 500 cases have been recorded in Hubei province – the centre of the virus outbreak.
Restrictions on travel are affecting at least 20 million people across 10 cities – including the capital Wuhan, where the virus emerged.
Its origins have been linked to the city’s seafood market.
Wuhan – which has a population of 11 million people – has gone into lockdown, with authorities suspending flights and train services in and out of the city.
“My university is checking every student’s body temperature every day and are offering free masks. It also has its own hospital and ambulance,” Chongthan Pepe Bifhowjit, an Indian student at the Wuhan University of Technology, told the BBC.
Videos have been circulating on social media, reportedly taken by Wuhan residents, showing long queues at local hospitals.
In a bid to tackle the increased demand for medical services, the authorities are building a new 1,000-bed hospital in the capital.
State-owned news outlet Changjiang Daily said the hospital could be ready by 3 February. A total of 35 diggers and 10 bulldozers are currently working on the site.
Image copyrightGETTY IMAGES
3. There have been some cases elsewhere
Outside China, confirmed cases have been recorded in Thailand, Vietnam, Taiwan, South Korea, Singapore, Nepal, Japan, the US and France.
Other nations are investigating suspected cases, including the UK and Canada.
Many authorities have announced screening measures for passengers from China, including the major airport hubs of Dubai and Abu Dhabi.
Taiwan has banned people arriving from Wuhan, and the US state department warned its nationals to exercise increased caution in China.
4. The symptoms are respiratory
Coronaviruses are common, and typically cause mild respiratory symptoms, such as a cough or runny nose.
But some are more serious – such as the deadly Sars (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (Mers).
It seems to start with a fever, followed by a dry cough and then, after a week, leads to shortness of breath.
But in more severe cases, infection can cause pneumonia, severe acute respiratory syndrome, kidney failure and even death.
Most victims have been elderly people, suffering from other chronic diseases including Parkinson’s and diabetes.
Peter Piot, professor of global health and director of the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, said the “good news” was that data suggested the virus may have a lower mortality than Sars.
There was also a diagnostic test and greater global sharing of information than previously, he said.
“And that is essential because you cannot deal with a potential pandemic in one country alone.”
There is not yet a specific anti-viral treatment for the infection, so people with the virus are currently being treated for their symptoms.
Image copyrightGETTY IMAGES
5. You can do things to reduce your chances of catching it
They include hand and respiratory hygiene as well as safe food practices.
People are advised to avoid close contact with people suffering from acute respiratory infections; wash hands regularly, especially after direct contact with ill people or their environment; and avoid unprotected contact with farm or wild animals.
Avoiding eating raw or undercooked animal products is also advised.
Those with symptoms of coronavirus should practise “cough etiquette”, including maintaining distance, covering coughs and sneezes with disposable tissues or the inside of an elbow, and washing hands.
The WHO has said that while there is evidence of transmission between people in close contact, such as families or those in healthcare settings, there is not yet evidence of onward transmission.
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6. If a case is suspected, there are processes to follow
The Chinese government has classified the outbreak in the same category as the Sars epidemic.
This means people diagnosed with the virus in the country must be isolated and can be placed in quarantine.
The WHO advises that patients should be assessed quickly and treated for the level of severity of the disease they have – mild, moderate, or severe.
It also recommends immediately implementing infection prevention measures. These include staff wearing protective clothing and limiting patient movement around the hospital.
In the UK, family doctors – GPs – are being advised to place patients suspected of having coronavirus in isolation and avoid physical examinations.
Official guidance from Public Health England (PHE) says patients should remain in a room away from other patients and staff and be prevented from using communal toilets.
The UK government’s emergency committee, Cobra, has held a meeting to discuss the outbreak.
6 more held over 1st seizure of homemade bomb in HK
HONG KONG – Six more people, including two students, were arrested on Wednesday in connection with a homemade pipe bomb seized by police – the first one found in Hong Kong.
The day before, police had defused a handmade bomb containing 40 grams of explosives in a subdivided flat in Mong Kok and arrested four people.
At a public briefing on Wednesday, police said they arrested six more suspects, all males aged from 17 to 23 years, in different districts. The suspects included two students, a kindergarten teacher, a barista and two unemployed people.
They were arrested on suspicion of manufacturing explosives, possessing dangerous substances, and illegal assembly. Police believe they are members of a radical group with a low profile, adding that they intended to use the bomb to attack police officers or vandalize police facilities by detonating the device at a mass public event.
Police said it is the first time that a homemade pipe bomb had been found in Hong Kong. This type of bomb, often used overseas to attack government facilities, could cause serious injuries even death after exploding into small pieces.
The police reiterated that making explosives with the intent to endanger life or property is a serious crime punishable by up to 20 years’ imprisonment.
Travellers face several risks when they travel. Some are small like getting lost in a city or sudden change in the itinerary; others are big like travelling to a dangerous place or getting sick abroad.
There are big outside forces that can affect our mobility. The impact of climate change and the potential final year of the Trump administration will be the two most important causes of travel risks in the year ahead, according to leading travel risk intelligence company Riskline.
Adam Schrader, director of operations, Riskline explains: “Although predicting what will happen in 2020 is a fool’s errand in an increasingly irrational world, a careful examination of ongoing and emerging trends provides crucial information for businesses planning the year ahead. All of the predicted risks we’ve shared are equally important, but two of them in particular will underpin the most dangerous security threats in 2020: the ongoing effects of climate change and the potential final year of the Trump administration.
“In the case of the former, it will be the mostly unseen, long-term effects that are the greater danger, as droughts or floods destroy land and livelihoods and become the catalysts for new violent conflicts and forced migration. Meanwhile the prospect that 2020 could be the final year of the Trump presidency bodes ill for international peace. Both allies and antagonists of the United States may feel that the level of impunity they have enjoyed in foreign affairs since 2016 may be coming to an end.”
Climate Change
Climate change has led to abnormal patterns of torrential rainfall, devastating floods, severe storms, prolonged heat waves and increased temperatures – all leading to growing water scarcity, droughts and dangerous wildfires. With the increased frequency of these natural disasters – for example, Hurricane Dorian which caused massive destruction across the Bahamas in September 2019 – fatalities, business and travel disruptions and power and communication outages are becoming recurrent. Efforts to reverse the damage caused by climate change are insufficient as the United States, the second-largest carbon emitter, plans to withdraw from the landmark Paris Agreement in 2020 if Trump wins another term in office.
US 2020, Brexit, US-China trade war
The results of the 2015 Brexit referendum in the UK and the 2016 US presidential election continue to upend long-standing domestic political norms in both countries. The long-term outcome of both events is unclear at present, but a return to the status quo is unlikely in either country – the pro-Brexit and pro-Trump coalitions that won in 2015 and 2016 have mobilised social forces that will remain on the scene for years to come.
When the UK leaves the EU, this will lead to major economic changes in the trading bloc and at the same time, EU members will face further economic disruptions from the US-China trade war fallout as, so far, none of President Trump’s Democratic rivals has promised to remove the tariffs imposed by his administration.
Islamist Terrorism
Islamist terrorism will remain a risk for travellers in 2020 as former members of the weakened Islamic State (IS) will be looking to carry out reprisal attacks following the death of former IS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in a US-led raid in Syria in October 2019. Former IS fighters and IS-inspired individuals will look to carry out lone-wolf attacks in any country with large numbers of foreign visitors.
Far-right terrorism
Far-right politicians and media organisations will gain further prominence in the Western world in 2020, particularly as United States (US) President Donald Trump intensifies his campaigning for the presidential election in November. Attacks similar to the deadly March 2019 shootings at a mosque and an Islamic centre in Christchurch, New Zealand, and the August 2019 mass shooting in El Paso, Texas, remain possible particularly in the US, as right-wing groups gain more appeal and expand their presence in mainstream American politics.
Infectious disease outbreak
Large and highly mobile populations, increasing urbanisation, weak government responses and deprived healthcare infrastructure, as well as attacks on healthcare workers in conflict zones, coupled with the effects of climate change, are all making outbreaks of diseases like Ebola, cholera, yellow fever and other mosquito-borne diseases more frequent.
In 2019, vicious outbreaks of dengue fever were reported in Brazil, the Philippines, Mexico, Nicaragua, Thailand, Malaysia and Colombia. Scientists predict an 80% chance of an El Niño weather pattern occurring in 2020, bringing disastrous heavy rainfall and long droughts to countries around the Pacific Ocean and paving the way for mosquito-borne diseases.
Internet outages
In 2018 and 2019, internet blackouts aimed at stopping the spread of anti-government protests cost Sudan, Iran, Iraq, Ethiopia, Chad, India, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Venezuela, billions of dollars in lost economic activity. This tactic will continue to prevail in 2020 as governments prefer to contain, rather than address, discontent expressed online.
Anti-systemic protests
In 2019, there was a considerable rise in anti-systemic protests across the world, notably in Latin America, parts of Europe, the Middle East and East Asia. As popular discontent with governments grows in many countries due to economic and social issues, expect these protest movements to grow in volume and frequency in 2020. In addition, nationalist sentiments have also been on the rise across Europe, highlighted by mass protests for independence/self-determination in Catalonia, while the rise of broad anti-corruption fronts has pressured incumbents in places like Serbia, Romania, Hungary and Moldova. Other countries to look out for include the United Kingdom as Brexit looms.
MENA Geopolitics: the role of Russia
Since 2015, Russia has stepped up its military and economic engagements in the Middle East, primarily in Syria and Turkey, but also expanding ties with Israel, Lebanon, Libya, Iraq, Iran, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, at the expense of the United States (US). Russia will continue to play a spoiler role in the region in 2020.
International sporting events
Major sporting events like the Summer Olympics in Japan, the UEFA Euro, the Copa América in Argentina and Colombia and the three cycling Grand Tours are likely to pose risks to travellers in 2020. Potential risks include targeted terrorism due to large crowds and global media interest. Furthermore, disruptions to air travel across Europe are also possible if any of the tournament should coincide with prolonged labour strikes in the air sector.
Water shortage
As heat waves increase in intensity and duration, protests over water scarcity are likely to multiply in 2020, particularly in water-stressed nations like India and Pakistan, and in Middle Eastern countries like Iran, Iraq and Lebanon. Violent clashes over increasingly scarce water and land resources can be expected in countries like Mali and Nigeria between farmers and herders, while public discontent is likely to extend to pockets of extreme water scarcity in under-developed regions of Italy and Spain as well as the US states of New Mexico and California.
FAA Proposes $5.4 Million Civil Penalty Against The Boeing Co.
The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) proposes a $5.4 million civil penalty against The Boeing Co. for allegedly installing nonconforming slat tracks on approximately 178 Boeing 737 MAX aircraft, which Boeing subsequently presented as ready for airworthiness certification.
This proposed civil penalty is in addition to a previously proposed civil penalty of more than $3.9 million against Boeing for allegedly installing the same nonconforming components on approximately 133 Boeing 737 NG aircraft. The FAA sent that letter to Boeing in early December.
Slat tracks are located on the leading edge of a Boeing 737’s wings and are used to guide the movement of panels known as slats. These panels provide additional lift during takeoff and landing.
The FAA alleges that Boeing failed to adequately oversee its suppliers to ensure they complied with the company’s quality assurance system. The agency contends that this failure resulted in the installation of slat tracks that were weakened by a condition known as hydrogen embrittlement that occurred during cadmium-titanium plating.
The FAA further alleges that Boeing knowingly submitted aircraft for final FAA airworthiness certification after determining that the parts could not be used due to a failed strength test.
The agency alleges that the affected slat tracks were processed by Southwest United Industries (SUI), a third-tier supplier to Boeing… Between June 29, 2018, and July 1, 2018, SUI subsequently shipped the parts to Spirit AeroSystems, Inc. (Spirit), which then delivered the parts to Boeing.
The FAA also alleges that SUI notified Kencoa Aerospace, LLC, on July 6, 2018, that a batch of slat tracks had failed a quality test indicating the presence of hydrogen embrittlement. Kencoa passed that information to Spirit on or about Aug. 3, 2018.
The FAA alleges that Spirit informed Boeing of the situation on or about Sept. 11, 2018, and subsequently proposed that Boeing accept the parts as delivered. On Oct. 9, 2018, Boeing rejected that proposal and instructed Spirit to submit a Notice of Escapement. Spirit filed that notice on Feb. 14, 2019, according to documents.
The FAA further alleges that from Aug. 16, 2018, through Oct. 9, 2018, Boeing certified as airworthy approximately 13 Boeing 737 MAX aircraft potentially equipped with those slat tracks. Between Oct. 10, 2018, and Mar. 10, 2019, Boeing certified an additional 165 potentially affected 737 MAX aircraft as airworthy.
The FAA issued an Airworthiness Directive (AD) on Aug. 15, 2019, mandating inspections of the affected aircraft that were proposed in a June 24, 2019 Boeing service bulletin. The AD specified various actions based on the ability to identify the slat tracks.
The FAA alleges that Boeing failed in this instance to maintain its quality system to ensure suppliers adhered to Federal Aviation Regulations.
Boeing has 30 days after receiving the FAA’s enforcement letter to respond to the agency.
FAA Proposes $3.92 Million Civil Penalty Against Southwest Airlines
The U.S. Department of Transportation’s Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) proposes a $3.92 million civil penalty against Southwest Airlines for allegedly operating multiple aircraft on commercial flights with incorrect calculations of weight and balance data.
The FAA alleges that between May 1, 2018, and August 9, 2018, Southwest operated 44 aircraft on a total of 21,505 flights with incorrect operational empty weights, and center of gravity or moment data. This weight-related information is used along with other data in determining how many passengers and how much fuel can be safely carried, as well as where cargo must be located.
The FAA alleges that Southwest’s operation of these aircraft was contrary to the airline’s approved weight-and-balance program and FAA-issued operations specifications.
Southwest has 30 days after receiving the FAA’s enforcement letter to respond to the agency.
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